An international effort to create a rail and maritime transport corridor to connect Asia to Europe while avoiding Russian territory has gained momentum in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The success or failure of the trade route, known as the Middle Corridor, depends on solid relations between Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan.
An insurgency allied with the Islamic State has been waging a bloody campaign in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado province for almost a decade. After a lull in fighting that lasted most of last year, militants spread southward through the isolated province in late 2023 and early 2024, burning houses, schools and churches as they went.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in Kyiv for a surprise visit meant to reassure Ukraine that the military aid approved three weeks ago by Congress will make a “real difference” on the battlefield. The visit comes amid a Russian offensive in Ukraine’s northeast that has been advancing for several days. (AP)
Russia’s advances since Friday amount to a whiplash development for Ukraine. In less than three weeks, Kyiv has gone from seeing $60.8 billion in long-delayed military aid finally approved by the U.S. Congress to seeing Russian troops surge across the northeastern border, capturing around 50 square miles near Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, in just a few days.
The offensive makes clear the degree to which Russia has been able to regroup, shore up its position and retake the initiative since its misfires in the war’s early stages. In doing so, it has largely relied on its advantage in mass when it comes to munitions and personnel. But the Russian military has also made effective tactical adjustments on the battlefield, even as Moscow has retooled the Russian economy to put it on a war footing.
The rapid Russian advance also underscores that Ukraine’s dwindling supply of munitions and troops along the eastern frontlines have left Kyiv just as vulnerable as its supporters repeatedly warned during the nearly six months that the U.S. aid package was delayed by congressional Republicans. Indeed, Russia’s attacks in the northeast appear designed to exploit that vulnerability by stretching Ukraine’s reserves along even more territory, allowing for potential breakthroughs elsewhere on the lengthy front.
That has made this a dangerous moment for Ukraine. Still, exactly what this latest offensive means for the overall war will depend on what happens in the coming weeks. In retrospect, this Russian offensive could eventually signal one of three things:
A temporary shift in momentum. It’s unclear if Russia will be able to hold on to the advances it has made. Much of the territory it has taken was lightly defended, and Ukraine says it should be able to shore up its frontline in the northeast in the coming days.
The start of an incremental shift in momentum. With Kyiv diverting troops to the northeast, Ukraine could soon become more vulnerable in other areas, allowing Russia to launch new attacks that Ukraine is unprepared for.
A breaking point. Analysts say Russia hasn’t committed a large number of soldiers for these attacks. If this turns out to be the start of a much larger Russian offensive, it could prove to be the moment Ukraine’s military broke.
In any case, the offensive highlights how overstretched and underequipped Ukraine’s military is, making this a moment of decision for Kyiv’s allies, particularly those in Europe. Since the war began, many European leaders have insisted that a Russian victory in this war would represent an existential threat to Europe as a whole and therefore must be prevented at all cost. At the same time, they have imposed limits on how much and what kinds of support they are willing to provide to Kyiv.