In brief
The Bahamas is a tiny, open, import-dependent island economy. Tourism is the main driver of economic growth, fiscal revenue and employment. The US is the primary source of tourists to the country and its principal trade partner. EIU expects real GDP to continue to moderate in the 2024-25 forecast period as growth in tourism and construction returns to the pre-pandemic trajectory, in line with a softer global economy. The unemployment rate will continue to decline. Substantial downside risks to our outlook stem from a sharper than anticipated slowdown in the US or sudden price shocks, as these would dampen the recovery in the domestic tourism sector and weigh on economic activity.
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Economic growth
(% unless otherwise indicated) | |||
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
---|---|---|---|
US GDP | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.8 |
Developed economies GDP | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.7 |
World GDP | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.7 |
World trade | -0.3 | 2.5 | 3.4 |
Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit |
Inflation indicators
(% unless otherwise indicated) | |||
2026 | 2027 | 2028 | |
---|---|---|---|
US CPI | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 |
Developed economies CPI | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
Manufactures (measured in US$) | 3.5 | 2.4 | 3.9 |
Oil (Brent; US$/b) | 74.2 | 69.5 | 65.3 |
Non-oil commodities (measured in US$) | 0.5 | 1.0 | 2.2 |
Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit |
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Financial variables
(% unless otherwise indicated) | |||
2026 | 2027 | 2028 | |
---|---|---|---|
US$ 3-month commercial paper rate (av; %) | 3.5 | 2.7 | 2.6 |
¥ 3-month money market rate (av; %) | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
¥:US$ (av) | 120.8 | 118.8 | 114.3 |
Rmb:US$ (av) | 6.90 | 6.83 | 6.78 |
Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit |