Ethnic armed groups have pushed the military out of most of Myanmar’s borderlands, putting the country on a path toward fracturing into self-governing statelets with the regime hanging on in the centre. Outside actors wishing to help Myanmar’s people should adjust to this new reality.
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Myanmar’s ethnic armed groups are securing on the battlefield the autonomous homelands they have long sought.
[China and Taiwan] are far away from a basis for dialogue that both sides can accept.
Myanmar isn't a well-functioning, centralized state that has suddenly fallen into atomization… It's always been fragmented to some extent or another.
[U.S.] Secretary Blinken's meetings in China underscored both the continuation of the tactical thaw in bilateral relations and the accumulation of fundamental stresses.
The [Myanmar] military is clearly facing significant manpower shortages, which is why it is introducing a draft for the first time in its history.
The more isolated the Taliban becomes, the more they turn to China to replace the diplomatic weight the US previously provided.
Tensions between China and the Philippines are increasing the risk of armed conflict in the South China Sea. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2024 – Spring Update, Crisis Group looks at how the EU can support regional diplomacy to mitigate maritime disputes.
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s experts Amanda Hsiao and Georgi Engelbrecht about rising tensions between the Philippines and China in the South China Sea and the risks of maritime incidents sucking in the U.S., a Philippines ally.
The Arakan Army has greatly expanded the territory it controls in Rakhine State, on Myanmar’s border with Bangladesh, seizing many areas inhabited by Rohingya Muslims. With the regime keen to foment inter-communal strife, Rakhine and Rohingya leaders should act swiftly to calm tensions.
In this in-person event, experts discuss the political and security situation in and around the Taiwan Strait and how the unofficial relationships between Taiwan and key regional actors may evolve under a new Taiwanese administration.
Russia used its Security Council veto to terminate a UN panel monitoring sanctions on North Korea, complicating efforts to contain Pyongyang’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts Christopher Green, Richard Gowan and Maya Ungar delve into the consequences.
Manila’s counter-insurgency campaign has whittled the Philippine communist rebellion down to a fraction of its former strength. But it has fallen short of ending the conflict. A negotiated peace preceded by confidence-building measures is the best way forward.
Negotiations with the Afghan Taliban have failed to make their regime more politically inclusive or respectful of women’s rights. The diplomatic agenda should be more focused, with issues like security cooperation and economic stability insulated from a main track regarding international recognition of the Taliban.
In this online event, experts discuss the current state of China-Myanmar relations, Beijing’s tacit support for the rebel offensive launched on 27 October in Myanmar’s northeast, and the implications for international policy on Myanmar.
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